Figure: HBL model simulated maximum wind swath for Hurricane Florence over land. The colored markers over land represent the differences of maximum sustained wind speed between HBL simulated wind and observed wind. The color bar on the left-hand side represents the magnitude (m/s) of HBL simulated maximum sustained wind speed and color bar on the right-hand side represents the magnitude (m/s) of errors between model and observations shown as colored markers over land. Track of Hurricane Florence is shown in the black colored line.

Building upon existing models, partnerships, and expertise, this project advances model capabilities and develops a real-time hazard and impact prediction system for hurricanes and nor'easters in Southern New England. The major goal of this project is to comprehensively investigate hazards and impacts in the focus regions using the most advanced coupled atmospheric, coastal ocean circulation/storm surge, wave and hydrological models and transition the developed new modeling capabilities to the real-time ADCIRC-Surge Guidance System (ASGS). 

In addition to storm surge, landfalling hurricanes and extratropical storms often cause extreme rainfall runoff and floods in coastal rivers, extreme waves during the hurricane often cause severe erosion in beaches and coastal roadways, and strong wave forces can cause damage to coastal and waterfront structures. Our innovative modeling approach seeks to understand the consequences of the combined coastal and inland flooding that has not been previously considered. Southern New England is especially vulnerable to inland flooding since the rivers are relatively short and it is more likely that high river discharge resulting from rain will coincide with the storm surge (unlike for the case with large rivers where there is a long lag time between rain and river flooding).

The ADCIRC mesh has been highly refined in southern New England. In the Rhode Island region, the new mesh properly resolves the complicated coastal geometry of Narragansett Bay and the southern Rhode Island coast including narrow inlets, salt ponds and the presence of the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier in Providence. The ADCIRC mesh boundaries over land have been reconfigured to allow river inflows from the major rivers for combined inland and coastal flood modeling (Ullman et al. 2019).